Mark your calendars for a cosmic close call on Friday the 13th, April 2029. That’s when Apophis, an asteroid the size of the Empire State Building and aptly nicknamed the “God of Chaos,” will zoom by Earth at an unsettlingly close distance of just 19,000 miles. For perspective, that’s closer than many satellites and just a hair’s breadth in cosmic terms. The buzz among scientists isn’t just about Apophis’s near miss—it’s about the potential astroquakes that Earth’s gravitational pull could spark on this ancient space rock.
Apophis is no ordinary asteroid. Discovered in 2004, it was initially thought to have a slight chance of colliding with Earth in 2029, sparking waves of concern among scientists and stargazers alike. Over time, refined calculations have ruled out any immediate threat, but there’s still reason to watch this city-sized hunk of metal and rock closely. Researchers now peg the odds of a collision at about one in two billion for the next 100 years—statistically comforting, yet it hasn’t dulled the fascination or urgency to understand Apophis and its dramatic Earth approach.
What Exactly Are Astroquakes?
Astroquakes, as scientists explain, are space tremors triggered by gravitational forces that occur when a massive object—like Earth—passes near an asteroid. In Apophis’s case, Earth’s gravity could disrupt its surface, causing it to shake, shift, and possibly even eject some of its rock and dust. These tremors could start an hour before the closest approach and last well beyond the asteroid’s passing. Just imagine rocks on Apophis lifting up, some even floating into the vacuum of space, only to drift off forever—an event you could compare to a cosmic reshuffle.
To study this in detail, a team led by Ronald-Louis Ballouz, a researcher at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, ran simulations to model Apophis’s 2029 trajectory. Their findings reveal two main processes Earth’s gravity could initiate. First, the asteroid might experience tremors, loosening boulders on its surface and lifting dust. Second, Earth’s pull might even alter its tumble through space, an effect that could set off gradual surface changes like landslides over tens of thousands of years. This combination of shaking and slipping is expected to refresh the asteroid’s surface, stripping away its “weathered” exterior and exposing newer material below.
Why Scientists Care About Apophis’s Shifting Surface
Apophis is part of a family of asteroids showing oddly smooth, “fresh” surfaces—strikingly different from the typically battered, weathered surfaces expected from billions of years in space. This mystery has fueled speculation: why do some space rocks, particularly those that pass close to planets, lack signs of wear? Ballouz and his team suggest that planetary encounters could be the answer. Gravitational forces strong enough to lift boulders or even scrape off a few meters of dust could leave these asteroids looking eerily pristine by space standards.
In Apophis’s case, NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission, set to meet the asteroid shortly after its 2029 flyby, will give scientists the perfect opportunity to test this hypothesis. Equipped with specialized instruments, the spacecraft will observe Apophis for 18 months, documenting any physical changes caused by the Earth flyby. Imagine the insights we could gain if this mission confirms the surface-refreshing effects of Earth’s gravitational influence. It could explain a lot about why other asteroids appear “young” despite their actual age.
What if a “City-Killer” Asteroid Ever Did Hit Earth?
While Apophis will pass us by, it serves as a stark reminder of the destructive power that “city-killer” asteroids pose. If Apophis, for instance, were to hit a major metropolitan area, the destruction would be akin to the detonation of hundreds of nuclear bombs, leveling buildings, and sparking devastation over hundreds of miles. In light of these risks, NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office has been hard at work developing ways to prevent such a catastrophe. From deflecting space rocks to outright destroying them, planetary defense is no longer the stuff of science fiction—it’s a scientific priority.
A Cosmic Reminder
Though there’s no need to panic, the 2029 flyby of Apophis will be a pivotal moment for planetary science. It’s a rare opportunity to learn more about the asteroid’s makeup, its surface activity, and the effects of a close planetary encounter. With advances in space observation and defense, Earth’s luckier than ever when it comes to managing asteroid threats. So, as we inch closer to Friday the 13th in 2029, remember this: we’re all getting front-row seats to a cosmic dance with the “God of Chaos.” It’s an encounter that promises new knowledge, a glimpse into the chaos of the cosmos, and maybe a few astroquakes along the way.
