The finding of a possibly deadly asteroid early this year sent scientists on a thrill ride, and they were not alone.
On January 6, 2022, scientists at the Mount Lemmon Observatory in Arizona announced the discovery of an asteroid measuring about 70 meters (230 feet) in diameter. According to their early findings, it looked that this object – known as ‘2022 AE1‘ – had the potential to collide with Earth on its next visit, which would occur on July 4, 2023.
Because any ambiguities in an asteroid’s orbit are at their greatest in the hours after its detection, astronomers at many separate observatories hurried to undertake follow-up observations – which, in most cases, ruled out the possibility of any further strikes.
Nevertheless, depending on the first 7 nights of monitoring, it seems that the likelihood of an effect is increasing. The Asteroid Orbit Determination (AstOD), an automatic technique used by astronomers throughout the globe to estimate the danger of an asteroid impact, identified Asteroid 2022 AE1 as having the potential to cause a future impact.
The asteroid also received one of the highest ratings possible on the Palermo Scale, which is used by astronomers to categorize and prioritize the hazards of an asteroid impacting the Earth. A copy of the material was made available on the Near Earth Object (NEO) info portal websites maintained by the European Space Agency and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), making it available to anybody interested in astronomy.
Even more concerning was the fact that no investigations could be performed the next week due to the fact that the full Moon obscured any sightings of this asteroid from Earth.
Although it was not possible to follow the asteroids again, the cumulative data on the asteroid’s route suggested that the likelihood of an impact was diminishing substantially over time. 2022 AE1 will not have an effect on Earth in the near future, according to the latest information available at this time.
Calculating the trajectory
The initial observation of an asteroid is just a solitary data point, one simple dot of light up the sky, and it is considered to be a failure. As of right now, neither what it is nor where it is heading is evident. Micheli noted that a secondary observation is required to show an object moving, and minimum three observations are required to define an orbit – the direction in which the object is traveling and the speed at which it is traveling.
More studies tighten the orbit even further, eliminating uncertainty until astronomers are confident that it will not go anywhere, particularly to Earth.
These calculations are made with the assistance of computer simulations, which determine the eventual orbital trajectory of the asteroid based on arbitrarily picked beginning locations and velocities inside the margin of error of readings made up to this point. Scientists can assess the likelihood that a specific route will really collide with the Earth by doing a massive amount of simulations.
